San Miguel Real Estate Market Update – October 2026

Residential real estate activity in San Miguel de Allende continues to demonstrate resilience despite rising inventory levels and increasing months of inventory across most price categories.

Compared to the first ten months of 2025, the number of properties going under contract is down only 6.5%, a pace that will likely characterize the year as a whole. Closed home sales are currently down 11.5%, with many more in the pipeline, while total dollar volume has declined just 7.8%. These percentages my seem large at first glance, but considering that 2025 was San Miguel’s best year on record and surpassing the previous record-breaking year of 2018, sales still feel relatively solid compared to our average years. 

Viewed in that context, today's market remains remarkably healthy by historical standards. Buyer demand continues to support steady transaction volume, particularly in the most active price ranges.

Despite the more competitive environment, Realty San Miguel has enjoyed an exceptional year, continuing to assist buyers and sellers across all segments of the market and reinforcing our position as one of San Miguel's most trusted real estate firms.

Buyers can shop with confidence knowing that San Miguel's resale market remains active and that the city continues to rank among the world's most desirable destinations, regularly appearing on numerous international retirement, lifestyle, and travel rankings.

At the same time, sellers should be aware of several important market trends that deserve careful consideration, which are discussed in the Market Outlook Analysis below.

Market Outlook Analysis

I will not spend much time discussing the U.S. residential real estate market this month, as little has changed since our previous Market Update, where we explored its relationship to the San Miguel market.

However, while reviewing current US market commentaries, two phrases appeared repeatedly: "Frozen" and "Buyer Friendly."  "Frozen" does not imply a market in decline. Rather, it describes a market where competing forces are preventing significant movement in either direction.   "Buyer Friendly," meanwhile, does not mean it’s a buyer's market. Instead, it reflects a landscape in which multiple factors weigh more in favor of the buyer than seller.

In many respects, San Miguel appears to be experiencing similar conditions 

Big Picture San Miguel

Because real estate in San Miguel has the ups and downs of a typical tourist and second home destination, traditional market indicators such as average sales price, inventory levels, and months of inventory often don’t accurately represent the market in general, particularly considering that there can be huge swings from one month to the next.  For example, the sale of a single $5 million home could increase a typical month's average sales price by more than $125,000 even though it may not accurately reflect broader market conditions.

To help our clients to have a better feel for the market I am listing some historical data to demonstrate how the market has changed since January of 2025.

Resale Home Inventory: 

·      630 Jan 1, 2025

·      549 July 1, 2025

·      820 Jan 1, 2026

·      745 July 1, 2026

·      868 Nov 10, 2026

Today's inventory of 868 resale homes represents a 58% increase from the recent low of 549 homes recorded just sixteen months ago in July 2025.

Months of Inventory:

1^st 10 months of 2025

·      Average 19.3 months

·      Lowest 11 months

·      Highest 28 months.

1^st 10 months of 2026

·      Average 27.5 months

·      Lowest 20 months

·      Highest 41 months.

What This Means to San Miguel

For Sellers:

Pay close attention to the months of inventory within your home's specific price range. Higher inventory levels generally mean greater competition and longer marketing times.

Sellers today must compete not only for the attention of buyers but also for the attention of the real estate professionals who will be selecting properties to recommend and show.

Homes that stand out through competitive pricing, strong presentation, and excellent condition are receiving the greatest interest.  Properties with deferred maintenance are increasingly viewed as fixer-uppers, and buyers typically adjust their offers accordingly. In today's environment, perceived value is just as important as price.

Patience may be required, but motivated sellers who position their homes effectively continue to achieve successful results. 

For Buyers:

Borrowing the phrase from the U.S. market, I believe San Miguel is currently buyer friendly.

Inventory levels provide buyers with more choices than we have seen in years. Buyers have greater opportunities to compare properties, negotiate favorable terms, and find the home that best fits their lifestyle and investment goals.

As we head into the Thanksgiving season, we are thankful for your trust in Realty San Miguel. Your confidence keeps us among the top real estate agencies in San Miguel, and we are proud to hold a 4.9-star rating on Google Reviews. We remain dedicated to giving both buyers and sellers the highest level of representation. 

Philip Hardcastle

A Note on Inventory and Market Dynamics

As you review the sales data, it’s important to remember that San Miguel traditionally carries twelve or more months of inventory across most price ranges—even during strong market cycles. In fact, fifteen to eighteen months of inventory is considered normal for our market.

 Because San Miguel functions primarily as a cash market, our absorption rates and inventory timelines will never mirror those of the U.S. or Canada, where mortgage‑driven markets often measure inventory in days or weeks rather than months.