San Miguel Real Estate Market Update – September 2026

Residential real estate activity in San Miguel continues to show remarkable strength, positioning 2026 to become the second‑best year ever recorded. As of the end of September—and projecting sales through year‑end—we appear to be on track to finish just 3% below the record number of sales achieved in 2025, yet 3% above the record dollar volume posted last year.

Inventory rose from 814 homes in August to 857 homes for sale in September, a trend that mirrors conditions in many U.S. markets where sellers currently outnumber buyers. Based on September’s closings, this increase brings San Miguel’s months of inventory to 25 months. For context, the first half of 2026 averaged around 20 months of inventory, only slightly above long‑term norms for our market.

While elevated inventory can create a perception of increased choice for buyers, it also underscores the importance for sellers to position their homes competitively—particularly as more listings enter the market heading into the final quarter of the year.

Market Outlook Analysis

We continue to monitor the growing stress in the U.S. residential real estate market, which as of the end of September showed 54% more sellers than buyers—meaning that for every 100 buyers, there are now 154 sellers. This represents the lowest number of buyers in recorded history. In September, 20.8% of all listings reduced their prices, though most reductions were modest, and overall prices declined only 0.9%. Total sales fell 2.5%, and mortgage rates climbed above 7%, adding further pressure to an already strained market. 

In several ways, San Miguel’s market mirrors these U.S. trends. Inventory here is higher than normal, and months of inventory have increased. Yet unlike the U.S., our sales volume remains strong, supported by a committed buyer base and market fundamentals that differ significantly from mortgage‑driven markets. 

Two Offsetting Forces = Price Stability?

One dynamic that cannot be ignored is the continued expansion of the money supply in the U.S. and many other countries. As more money is printed, purchasing power is diluted, pushing the cost of nearly everything higher—including home prices in San Miguel. At the same time, our elevated inventory levels create downward pressure on prices, particularly in segments with heavy competition.

These two opposing forces—inflationary pressure pushing prices up and high inventory pushing prices down—have largely offset each other this year. As a result, we anticipate relative price stability over the coming months, assuming no unexpected global events disrupt the current balance.

What This Means to San Miguel

For Sellers: Competition is high. Homes in excellent condition consistently sell faster and command stronger offers. In a competitive market, properties with deferred maintenance are quickly perceived as “fixer‑uppers,” and any offers you receive will reflect that discount. Presentation and condition matter more than ever.

For Buyers: You have an abundance of options across all areas of town. However, if the current inventory leads you to believe a buyer’s market is imminent, we encourage you to revisit our March 2026 Market Update, where we explain why such a shift will not occur quickly in San Miguel. Our market fundamentals—cash purchases, low carrying costs, and long‑term owner commitment—create a very different environment than markets in the U.S. or Canada, where mortgage pressures and high carrying costs drive faster price corrections.

Although we have not done a formal survey, we still have the sense that the majority of our San Miguel buyers are committed to moving here and we see only a small percentage of clients who are in the discovery mode debating their choice.

Thank you for your continued trust in Realty San Miguel for all your real estate needs. We are proud to hold a 4.9‑star rating on Google Business Reviews, and we remain dedicated to providing both buyers and sellers with the highest level of representation. 

Philip Hardcastle

A Note on Inventory and Market Dynamics

As you review the sales data, it’s important to remember that San Miguel traditionally carries twelve or more months of inventory across most price ranges—even during strong market cycles. In fact, fifteen to eighteen months of inventory is considered normal for our market.

 Because San Miguel functions primarily as a cash market, our absorption rates and inventory timelines will never mirror those of the U.S. or Canada, where mortgage‑driven markets often measure inventory in days or weeks rather than months.