February was another solid month for resale homes in San Miguel de Allende. While the number of closed sales dipped compared to February 2025, the volume of homes that went under contract remained high — those transactions will appear in the closing figures over the coming month or two.

 The question on many potential buyers' minds is whether San Miguel de Allende remains safe. The short answer is yes.

 Following the death of cartel leader El Mencho and the violence that erupted in several other Mexican cities, San Miguel saw no unusual incidents. Local authorities did cancel school for one day out of caution, but conditions returned to normal quickly. Over the past two weeks, the streets have been filled with foreign visitors — a strong indicator that very few, if any, travelers chose to cancel their trips. 

Market Outlook Analysis
Although 2026 is off to a promising start — and we expect that ongoing uncertainty in the US will continue to draw buyers to San Miguel — there are some emerging concerns worth noting.

For several months, the US residential market has seen a growing imbalance between supply and demand. As of this writing, there are approximately 47% more sellers than buyers, meaning for every 100 buyers there are 147 sellers. This is the worst ratio recorded in the US since 2013. Canada's residential market, by comparison, is considerably more balanced.

This matters for San Miguel because many potential buyers here need to sell their US home first. When that process stalls or takes longer than expected, it delays — and in some cases prevents — purchases in San Miguel.

Locally, inventory levels are already elevated in certain price ranges. If the US market doesn't correct soon, that same pressure will only increase here.

External Market Influences

Our team continues to monitor US and global geopolitical trends, as these factors can influence the San Miguel de Allende resale market quickly and significantly.

Thank you for your continued trust in Realty San Miguel to represent you in all your real estate needs. We remain committed to open communication and transparent guidance as the market evolves.

Philip Hardcastle

* As you review the sales data, it’s important to remember that San Miguel traditionally carries twelve or more months of inventory across all price ranges—even during boom years. For this market, fifteen to eighteen months of inventory is considered normal.

Because San Miguel functions primarily as a cash market, our absorption rates and inventory timelines will never mirror those of the U.S. or Canada, where inventory is often measured in days rather than months.