How did we arrive at this price estimate?
We believe that we have the best database of resale properties in San Miguel de Allende. Although we have been collecting data since 2006, for more than three years we have had an employee working almost full time recording the data of every new property listed. It includes at least the address, square meters of land and construction, bedrooms, baths, photos, date and price first listed, the history of sales price reductions, and sold price and date.
We have built this database mainly from monitoring all of the real estate websites in San Miguel, crosschecking our entries with the data from the (non-public) MLS of AMPI (Asociación Mexicana de Profesionales Inmobiliarios), clarifying missing or conflicting info by directly speaking with the listing agents, using some commercial appraisals, and occasionally crosschecking the information with the Public Registry.
Why Mid-2018 Peak Prices?
Since it is almost impossible to measure a property's true current value since the beginning of this pandemic, we decided to measure each property against the peak of the market in mid-2018 when the sales volume and prices were at the highest and there is an abundance of data to compare.
2019 already saw the sales volume slow down substantially and sales prices dropping 10% to 17%, depending on how close the home was to Centro and its condition.
Where prices should be today or tomorrow in comparison to the peak of the market is yet to be seen. Some already believe that prices should be falling fast while others believe we will see a boom of people wanting to move here and that the market will be strong again.
Whether the market softens or strengthens, it seems that the best way for Realty San Miguel to serve our clients is to increase property specific transparency and to use our database to provide an indication of what the price of each property may have been at the peak of the market and revise our sort order to feature first the properties which appear to be most aggressively priced. Using one country property as an example, our algorithm indicates that the peak value would have been $1,078,000 USD even though we show that it was sold in 2016 for $1,200,000 USD. Today the sellers are obviously motivated and the property is listed for only $550,000 USD. Therefore it displays with five stars in the search results and indicates that it may be priced around 50% below the peak price.Our current star ratings are set at:
- One Star means the results indicate a property is priced at least 10% below the mid-2018 peak price.
- Five Stars means the results indicate a property is priced a 30% or more below the mid-2018 peak price.
For several years we have believed that the lack of property specific transparency within our San Miguel real estate community did not serve clients well. Although still a long way from perfect, the quarantine downtime and changing market caused by the Covid-19, convinced us that we finally have enough data to help our clients make better informed decisions. Hopefully our continuing dedication will keep improving the accuracy that our algorithm produces.
Although we believe that there are no other databases as complete as ours, we also know that ours has substantial limitations. Combine an imperfect database with the complications of there being million-dollar homes next door to fifty-thousand dollar homes and that they are all unique, makes the algorithm programming challenging at best. Rarely is a physical appraisal used, so the value results that appear on our website SHOULD ONLY BE USED AS AN INDICATOR OF POSSIBLE VALUE and not as an absolute.
If you find one or more of the properties interesting, please reach out to one of our agents who can help you fine tune the current value in comparison to the mid-2018 peak value. We have spent a lot of our quarantine time working with our agents to make sure they are up to the task and can best serve your needs.
- New developments are often not included in our database until resales of units begin.
- Although we want to have every property for sale in San Miguel on our website, we don't list the ones that have no photos or are missing basic data points we believe necessary. In general, we believe there are between 4% to 9% more properties for sale than show up on our site.
- Sold in the past 12 months is generally much lower than the actual number of sold because many websites remove a property without indicating whether it was actually sold or just taken off the market. We only mark a property sold when we are confident in the accuracy.
- The listing and sold date shown is the day that the property went into or was updated in our database. Normally this happens within a week of the actual event, however, occasionally we find a property that has been listed for a few months that was not in our database or a property that sold without being properly noted.
We know that the priorities of some of our clients are more about finding their perfect dream home and less about the best value. However on the other end of the continuum, the finances of some of our clients dictate spending no more than necessary. Wherever you fall on this scale, we believe that the increased property transparency and our algorithm indicators will help you make more informed decisions and streamline your purchase process.
We appreciate your confidence in us and for giving us the privilege of working with you!